Friday, February 27, 2009

Citibank, Value Mirage 2/27/2009

So its official, The US Government has been convinced by the failed Banking Senior Executives that breaking up Citibank in orderly liquidation is NOT they way to go. Instead, to allow the bank to meet its capital requirements , (set by the US Government) a portion of the US Government loans will now be converted into equity and enable Citi to retain capital requirements. No surprise this comes on the last business day of the month. I am shocked bank stock investors missed this and are now forced to sell positions.

Rumors abound concerning the conversion rate (at a 30% premium to the closing price). Also that the US government is requesting (forcing) many other Intl. and domestic lenders to convert as well. Its worse than this actually.

The truth is the conversion rates and amount of conversion were determined not by valuation, but BY MATH. It leaves additional equity on the table giving the Government and Citi's lenders the ability to convert more debt in the future to save Citi's balance sheet and liquidity requirements.

The ripple effect is going to be significant today and Monday. Watch for big "positive" announcements coming out of the Government talking heads this weekend to stave off a further sell off, especially from China and Hong Kong who didn't get a chance to trade on this information (their markets are already closed for the weekend).

Its a sad state of affairs. CitiBank is NOT INFRASTRUCTURE. Citibank is not a required investment by the government. This continued funding is being perpetuated for one reason - its failure would force all equity investors in bank stock and financial stocks to sell their positions to fair value. I estimate fair value of the World Financial system to be at 25% of current values. Why? An extremely savvy, long term Banks and Thrifts only investor who began selling his fund's positions (not buying any new shares in banks) more than 5 years ago tells me that Banks' values must trend to 1.0x book value. And that's for stable Banks. Look at where the industry is valued now: 1.5x.

Value is built by protecting and investing your company's infrastructure. That may be people, that may be technology, that may be trucks or machine tools. Constant monitoring is needed to be certain your company's strategy is being supported by your infrastructure. Speculation is Risk. But so is spending on non-value producing infrastructure. The Government just spent money on non-value producing infrastructure - before it was a loan, now its pure speculation.
Its over for Citi. Don't let the same happen to your enterprise.

Build value every day.

Brad van Siclen

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Infrastructure and Value 2 / 25 / 2009

I am pleased to see that President Obama delivered the ('till now) speah of his life. By being forward looking, telling it straight, and taking responsibility he proves to all the value of good leadership in crisis.

Now for the part he is making drastic mistakes with. The recovery plan. First and foremost, this plan should build infrastructure and infrastructure alone (or 90%). It should then buy homes that have been foreclosed (and still occupied) and then put the homeowners who can't afford those mortgages to work on the infrastructure projects in their local area. Let them keep their day time jobs, and work during the weekends to cover their short falls. That way, the government gets assets and value for our money and the American People get real benefits. An example is the Internet (infrastructure!) which was paid for by the Government...look at the value it has returned!

The worst possible thing this government can do is continue to bail out car companies and banks that failed in the most lucrative point in their industry's histories. Failed.

I disagree with many VC's I work with concerning the shutting down of their investment companies that either can't grow or can't get profitable. But I admire their discipline, and for the VC's that are still around from the bubble burst, they understand how to preserve the value they have built and get rid of the costs that take from that value.

The government should do the same.

Build value every day.

Brad van Siclen

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Note to President and his Value in Crisis - 2/24/2009

Dear Mr. President,

I voted for you, I voted for Change. I was witness to the leveraging of the US economy in funding the war against terror. I was witness to the reliance on Wall Street to fuel the Economy through the reduction of margin requirements. I was witness to the end of Glass Steagall and commercial bankers thinking they should be the same risk takers as investment bankers. I was witness to the greatest stimulus package and economic disaster likely in world history, the reduced fed funds rate that resulted in extreme leverage in the stock market, bond market, mortgage market, all of which led to the ultimate leverage gambit, the derivatives market. One voice rang out as the word of "Economic God", it was Greenspan's. The perfect non-committal, wishy washy, economic spin doctor and front man needed to legitimize the concept that leverage and speculation leads to permanent value creation.

The Change we need is straight talk. The Change we need is an end to political rhetoric in times of crisis. What we need is a change in how the world perceives us. Straight talk, accepting blame, taking responsibility. Then and only then will we know if you stand for the current and future value of America or if you are simply looking to leverage America's value for the benefit of the politicians and political gain for the next 4 years.

Don't be Clinton, Don't be Bush. Don't be Greenspan. Do not leverage your office to "punt" yet again. Real leaders understand value. They understand what their value is in crisis. We are in systemic crisis. We need to be told, not reminded, of our value and your value. And your value is straight talk, the acceptance of responsibility, and action.

Stop the daily no value speeches. You either bring value to the people, to America, or you don't. We voted for change. Now it is time to change.

(Now Entrepreneurs and CEO's read this again as if written by a key employee to you as President of your Company).

Build value every day.

Brad van Siclen

Monday, February 23, 2009

More Money For Citi -Where's the Value? 2/23/2009

When will the lunacy stop? How much money has been sent Citi by the government? At last count we were at 40 Billion. Now we are hearing the government will step in again possibly upping their stake to 40%? Can anyone explain to me why more money is the solution? This "bank" stopped functioning as a bank years and years ago. It stopped marking its assets to market properly years and years ago. We have no idea what the value is at Citi. They are not making small business loans (they are not able to), they are not making personal or mortgage loans (they are capital constrained due to an upside down balance sheet (more liabilities than assets). So other than an ATM machine, what is Citi? Its over Washington. Citi stopped offering value when they were first to raise ATM fees to $3.00. That, in hind sight was the leading indicator that their business model was malfunctioning.

Why has Washington decided that the Executives that brought on the Citi mess while misrepresenting asset value in order to pay gigantic bonuses on bogus profitability SHOULD REMAIN IN CHARGE OF US GOVERNMENT MONEY? Has anyone familiar with the capital markets funding process ever seen a funding above market values raised for a company and management team that has failed by over extending their business model, not managing their risks, and expects to retain their position?

Santellian rant aside, what value does Citibank bring systemically to this country other than managing existing accounts and loans? Now compare that value with the amount of value Citibank has removed from our economy. I don't know the answer to that one, but our government has staked he bad side of the bank.

Real investment, not speculation, in your business is determined by faith in management, faith in business strategy, and importantly historic performance.
Set your goal each day to improve those key areas. You'll likely not need outside funding if you do, and you'll be amazed how much of it will be available since you do not need it.

Build value every day. Take care in leveraging the value you have built.

Brad van Siclen

Friday, February 20, 2009

Seeing Gold for its Value - 2/20/2009

It's Friday and we need some quick perspective to start up our day. Here it is. Gold is not an investment. It is the original hedge. Gold never changes value. It is the currency you do business in that changes value. I will say that again;

Gold never changes value. It is the currency you do business in that changes value.

So when you see gold up from $700.00 an ounce to $900.00 an ounce what does that really mean? It means that the capital markets or in this case the gold experts think the value of the US Dollar has decreased in that time period by 23%. ("1-700/900=0.233333 is the math calculation for those who forgot how to determine percentage change). Well that's alarming. What we are seeing is the value of the US dollar being eroded by over leverage and over printing by our government. The history of Fiat or Paper currency is that it always trends to zero value. Well that's scary enough to think about, but it will be a gradual process. This is because the value of the US dollar is heavily determined by the relative value of the currencies of its trading partners.

These are huge concepts that miles of documents have been written about. Send me a question or comment and I'll respond to it.

Perspective based upon knowledge is ultimately the most valuable building block in business. It is developed incrementally and over time.

Build value everyday.

Bradford van Siclen

Thursday, February 19, 2009

How Housing Bill Helps Value - 2/19/2009

Tax Payers and Mortgage Payers you are the bedrock the new administration is banking on. In return, they will save only those individuals who have jobs and could pay their mortgages if they had taken fixed rates instead of adjustable rates. Now if you happen to be one of the few with a job who can not pay your mortgage, can you imagine what the government loan application will look like? Apply today and 60 days from now you may have approval. That's 2 more mortgage payments. And if you can't make the payments, guess what foreclosure proceedings.

I know what you are thinking - How does this solve anything? Well the answer is it doesn't solve the mortgage crisis. What it attempts to do is repeat the efforts of the Bush and Paulson strategy - If you act like you are helping, and allocate funds to help a sector of the economy, lenders will pause their collection proceedings. If collection proceedings are paused or slowed, maybe some good news will come to the fore and the economy will reverse direction. Rumor and Conjecture and News Releases - These are the standard Wall Street and Capital Market's responses to bad times.

But in this case, perhaps the allocation of new money to assist the mortgage crisis will accomplish the goal of the real smart guys of the US economy. And that is establish a floor of downside so we may be able to value US real estate properly and efficiently again.

The value of a home is based upon the relative value of similar homes in its neighborhood. One or two homes selling at low rates and the value of all homes declines. I have it on good authority that a group of Ft. Lauderdale real estate agents were pooling personal funds as early as June 2008 and buying homes at ABOVE MARKET PRICES in a silly attempt to bolster selling prices of their clients homes based upon relative value. Is it legal? We'll see.

So what's the value of the Obama Housing Bill? Not much. The US public has been leveraged, US business has been leveraged, US markets have been leveraged, and now the US government has been leveraged..each one is showing signs of cracking. Look out below readers. You'll know when the entire system goes into free fall when the US dollar begins to fail.

Build value on a simple strategy - earnings and unencumbered assets - and ignore the noise of leveraged returns. They are false, short term returns. See your business like a farmer sees his business - incremental returns, and protect your assets every day.

Build value every day.

Brad van Siclen

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Valuing the Dow Jones - 2/17/2009

Not long ago the Dow Jones was actually an Index - something that serves to guide, point out, or otherwise facilitate reference - of the US Economy. Each component was selected because of its size and importance in its industry. Those industries were selected based upon their importance to the overall US GDP. Some industries would grow and some would stall, even shrink during any given period of time. And each Component's share price behaved with great independence of other component's share prices. That combination of similarities (importance to the US Economy and core industries) and independent price action created an elegant barometer of the stock market which is the great predictor of the US economy 6 months out.

But that is not what the Dow Jones Index has become. The moment traders and investors could buy or sell all shares in the index at once, through the DIAA shares, the Dow Index stopped being a leading indicator and became a current emotional indicator. It trades much like the T-Notes - it is a current events driven index. Which makes it a lagging indicator. When will it stop falling? I think we are getting close because the Price earnings multiples (the value of the current share price / LTM earnings per share) are getting closer to parity. 8x - 14x is still a big spread, but most are between 8x and 10.5x.

So let's bring this back to value. Your value. The value of a company to its investors is its predictable future earnings. The value of a company to a buyer of the company is its Net Assets plus its predicted future earnings. Everything else is speculation. So as a business owner, your business model must be fine tuned to create predictable earnings with unencumbered assets. For the public company Executive your goal is to create predictable earnings. That is it. All other metrics, revenue multiples, revenues per customer, multiples to EBITDA, Discounted Cash Flow to name a very few. These "methods" of determining value were created by finance underlings to justify speculative investments or over valued acquisition pricing.

Let that sink in. If building value is your goal, and it should always be, focus on what is real, earnings from unencumbered assets. And let your investors or potential buyers speculate on your real value.

Build value every day.

Brad van Siclen



Here's the other issue.




Sunday, February 15, 2009

What's with Europe and the G-7? 2/15/09

More complaints about the US economy out of Europe? Is anyone shocked? This is after all the group of economies that ride US coat tails in good times, and blame the US in bad times. Does anyone find it amazing that a group of economies whose governments run their heavy industry off of government subsidies is complaining? These are subsidies that artificially inflate the cost of labor while simultaneously enabling their goods to be competitively priced for export. These same economies "prefer" buying European and selling to the US, Middle East, and Asia. And now they are complaining that the US stimulus plan favors buying American?

World Bank head, and former Goldman Sachs Executive, Robert Zoellick agreed with the G-7 ministers saying how crucial it was to keep the world economy open and to "avoid the protectionist policy errors of the 1930s. The Buy American provision is very dangerous,” he said.

In fairness, the US and its lax economic management created our recent economic debacle. Leverage and more leverage was used to prop up the value of non-competitive companies while their market share eroded. Market share was taken by Asian manufacturing and frankly a boom in non-leveraged investing led by the Middle East.

Add to this commercial bankers thinking they should be paid like investment bankers, commercial bankers who levered their balance sheets at the expense of their shareholders, and ultimately the US dollar to take value from others...and the US is fair game for criticism. But not by the Europeans..they were simply the last to the party.

Has anyone really thought about what leverage really does? It allows those who are able to use it the ability to take more value than they are due. And when you as an individual or executive can leverage your shareholders wealth to super size your personal wealth and returns without repercussions should you guess wrong, that creates an environment for economic disaster. Sound familiar?

Isn't it time that all these grey haired heads of finance, heads of economies, heads of banks determine what their real value is today? Give us a starting point to rebuild the economies of the world. Stop pointing fingers while more and more people get laid off. We can't create value until we know what values exist today. THINK ABOUT IT. How can we buy or sell anything if we don't know what it is worth?

In order to build value, we all must define value. Value must be defined by each industry's leader. Why do we keep looking to the Government while the Government keeps looking to the Finance Industry for a definition of value.

NOT ONE OF THOSE GROUPS WANTS TO ADMIT TO THE REAL VALUE OF THE DOLLAR AND THE US FINANCIAL SYSTEM. If they were forced to truly admit to the results of their errors, they would never work in government or finance again.

Once more, in order to build value, we all must define value. And today, value must be defined by each industry's leader. They are the experts NOT ELECTED or APPOINTED officials.

Build value every day.

Brad van Siclen

Saturday, February 14, 2009

What Value Will Come Of This? - 2/14/09

The New York Times Business Section is reporting on $7,000.00 suits, a slowdown in luxury home club sales, and a column on the stimulus package. Guess what all three of these have in common? Not one will create consistent, on going value. Not One. When will American Business get its head on straight again? Let's consider the long term value created by businesses like GE, Microsoft, Exxon - Each one recognized its value in its growth stage, and set about improving it daily. The Stimulus Package, The luxury vacation home company, the $7,000.00 suit - these are one time transactions people - they are designed to make us feel good in the short term with no concern for next year. We'll never feel as good about any of these items as we do on the day we buy into them.

We just leveraged the American Dollar for 4 years to support a war and the companies that support our war efforts - What value has come to America? And now the solution is to leverage America even more. We need to understand that Value in all things must be built on fundamental, consistent efforts. We can build value from any starting point with that prospective.

So Business Associates and Executives - the government is making things worse - it is up to us to make American Industry, Business, Workers valuable, to maintain the value we have built our government representative by their decisions continue to wreck value. And I voted for this new government hoping it would be the lesser of two evils.

How should a government operate with value building for its people in mind - Look to Mayor Bloomberg. Simple, accurate, astute recognition of how to preserve and create value in any economic climate.

Build some value every day. (Bloomberg does)

Bradford van Siclen

Friday, February 13, 2009

Let's Keep it Simple - 2/13/09

We all want value from any time spent during the business day. The question is how to find it, or how to provide it. Having been tasked to provide morning value strategies for for a financial advisory firm during the Tech Bubble, the Post 9-11 Era, and now to way layed public company executives, I learned very quickly that value must be simply defined, logical, and motivating.

Value also needs to be a bit like farming, every day improve upon your strategy, even the smallest bit, while at the same time protect the value you built in days past. So what is the value strategy today? You already have been thinking it on the way to the office.

Today I find the talking heads talking TARP / BANK BAIL OUT. What value do we take from these ongoing discussions? 2 pieces - One, the more opinions you have the closer you can get to the perfect answer. Two, you'll never get the right answer to fixing a problem of any size by getting these opinions from the people who created the problem. Seek out the people in your organization that were not directly involved in creating the problem you are addressing in your enterprise. And get their opinions. You'll identify talent you were not certain existed. Empower team members who were sent down the wrong path, and maybe even find a new captain to solve your enterprise's problem.

So between phone calls and meetings, write that value effort down on a Post It in 10 words or less. Stick that Post It on your computer screen's frame each day and take them down after reviewing them Monday morning.


Build some value every day.